At the Hamilton-Halton Home Builders’ Association, we always have our finger on the pulse of the construction and home-building industries. What trends can you expect not just for 2020 but for years to come?
1. Only Moderate Increase in Demand
A Central 1 Credit Union forecast says that home ownership demand will be more modest from 2019 to 2020. The forecast predicts that residential mean price will still grow 3.2 percent, but it won’t achieve the top growth rates we’ve been experiencing over the last few years. The report expects that residential home sales will actually decline by 16.8 percent, though 2020 is expected to fare better than 2019. Sales during this period are expected to focus on high-density housing and affordable housing.
At the same time, Ontario’s nuclear plants have major refurbishment projects and our increasing population is demanding more infrastructure including transportation infrastructure and new condominium development, all of which will drive more opportunity in the construction industry.
2. Construction Workforce Will Need Aggressive Recruitment
Roughly 91,100 construction workers will be retiring between 2019 to 2028, according to a report from BuildForce Canada. This represents 21.5 percent of the current workforce. The same report has found that the industry will likely attract 77,800 new workers from a local supply of new employees, however that leaves a gap of tens of thousands. Therefore, to fill staffing needs, the industry will need to train and recruit new talent aggressively.
3. New Entrants into the Industry
BuildForce Canada’s report concludes that to fill this need for more workers, the industry will need to attract 26,100 people outside of the local supply of new entrant workers. What does this mean? The construction industry will need to find new workers from immigrant and international pools. By the same token, increasing immigration also helps to drive population growth and general housing demand.
4. Growth in Southwestern Ontario
Construction Forecasts predicts that from 2019 to 2028, the GTA and southwestern Ontario are expected to demand more from the labour market than other areas of the province. There’s strong opportunity in this area, and an 18 percent increase in non-residential employment demand is expected by 2021.
While the residential sector is stable, growing demand in the non-residential sector will be a challenge to maintain pace with. Major infrastructure work, including nuclear refurbishment and major bridge projects will drive demand in this area like no other. Heavy equipment operators and refrigeration and air conditioning mechanics will be in highest demand.
While no one knows what the future holds, these trends can give our members a sound foundation for future planning, which is critical to success in this industry. At the Hamilton-Halton Home Builders’ Association we’re committed to supporting our members with strategies for success. Contact us to share an idea or learn more.